A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
