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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.