Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
